For the government to remain open next week, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy needs to work a miracle, mustering enough votes from the cadre of House Republican holdouts so as to pass a continuing resolution within shouting distance of the Senate version. If he can succeed in doing so, a conference committee could then agree on a resolution that both houses of Congress could approve.
Even more miraculous would be an agreement between McCarthy and the House Democratic leadership to follow the lead of its counterpart in the Senate and reach a bipartisan agreement to keep the government open. Moreover, as part of that House agreement, the two sides would commit to voting to retain McCarthy as speaker, despite opposition from his party’s extremists.
Expecting either miracle from Congress may be expecting too much. The government is likely to shut down for at least several weeks, until the combination of mutual finger-pointing by both parties and public outrage causes legislators to approve at least a short-term continuing resolution. Such a resolution, likely to run until mid-November, could well be followed by another that runs deep into winter, before agency budgets, and particularly the national security budgets — for the Departments of State, Defense, Homeland Security and the Treasury — finally win congressional approval.
Over the recent past, continuing resolutions have become something of a norm. They have resulted in slowing down or postponing program initiatives, which, with a few minor exceptions, are not permitted in a continuing resolution. This outcome has hit the Defense Department especially hard, as it has delayed and sometimes nullified new research, development and procurement programs — which are urgently needed to ensure that America maintains a credible technological lead over its potential adversaries, notably China and secondarily Russia. Yet the effects of a shutdown would be even worse.
It is true that many of those serving in the national security departments will continue to carry out their functions — though without pay — until a shutdown ends. Nevertheless, many important, though perhaps not essential, support activities in those departments will cease. And morale will suffer even among those continuing to serve. Indeed, depending on how long a shutdown continues, many talented but frustrated military and civilian officials may choose to opt out of government service altogether.
Moreover, the impasse in the Congress not only reflects the bitter political divide, indeed the chasm, that afflicts the American public; it has also infected the military. Officers report a significant increase in the number of military members who trumpet their political afflictions on their hats, T-shirts and other paraphernalia. Given the critical importance of unit cohesion in combat, this development is troubling. It raises the worrisome question of whether those who resent supporters of the opposite political party would come to their comrades in time of need.
Should the government be forced to cease most of its operations, it would mark the fourth such shutdown in the past decade, the longest of which lasted over a month. Beyond its impact on domestic and defense programs — and on military morale and the morale of defense and other civilians serving both the national security and domestic agencies — it would send yet another troubling signal to allies and partners who are already worried about American stability and consistency. In my many meetings with foreign officials, analysts, journalists and ordinary citizens, the most frequent question I am asked is, “What is happening to your country?” The usual follow-on question invariably is, “What happens under the next administration?”
These concerns reflect a fear that America is no longer the leader of the Free World that it once was. A shutdown will reinforce that fear. Equally, if not more dangerously, it would signal to America’s adversaries that the U.S. does not have the internal strength and cohesion to face them down in a crisis, much less a conflict. Put bluntly, a shutdown would further undermine an already weakened American deterrent.
Perhaps Congress will work an eleventh hour miracle after all. Legislators have long had a tendency to wait until the last minute before seeking and reaching a compromise on vital issues affecting the nation’s well-being. But if no miracle is forthcoming, then at least the Congress should find a way to bring the shutdown to an end within days and not weeks, so that the business of government can go on — and Washington can continue to demonstrate to allies, partners, friends and adversaries that it would be a serious error to conclude that its internal political vicissitudes translate into fundamental American weakness.
Dov S. Zakheim is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and vice chairman of the board for the Foreign Policy Research Institute. He was undersecretary of Defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer for the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and a deputy undersecretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.
