The start of 2024 is expected to bring mild conditions to much of the West and North in a reversal from the first three months of 2023, according to the outlook released Friday by The Weather Company, an IBM Business, and Atmospheric G2.
If you're looking for a cooler than average first quarter of 2024, you'll need to head to the Southeast.
The table will be set this winter by El Niño. This natural climate phenomena tends to flip the temperature patterns in the U.S. during the winter – milder winters in the North and cooler than average winters in the South. You can see this pattern in the general outlook for the first quarter of 2024 below.
Now, let's put some caveats on the table. This year, we'll be trying to poke cold air into the otherwise El Niño-related warmth.
We've been playing the "how will El Niño and _____ interact?" game for a while, and the next few months aren't any different. Through the first quarter of 2024, we'll add the polar vortex and the potential for sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) to the picture.
An SSW event is a rapid warming in the upper levels of atmosphere that can help weaken and dislodge the polar vortex. They are a common caveat included into long-term forecasts during the winter months because they come with significant cold risks.
Periods where the polar vortex is weakened could lead to short bursts of cold air that can last from a few days to a week. They should not dominate any month and there will be periods of cooler air even if such SSW events do not occur.
We'll also watch for any blocking patterns that could temporarily bind up the jet stream and drive cooler air into the Lower 48.
These cooler risks are expected to be infrequent, so, for now, we will rely on El Niño.
Month-By-Month Highlights
-All three months will feature a much above average start to the year in the Northwest. This is something that NOAA's Climate Prediction Center agrees with.
-Cooler than average conditions are most likely in the Southeast, but this may fade as we move toward spring.
-Much of the Southwest will see near-average to slightly above average temperatures.
-The Northeast is likely to see a warm start, then flirt with average in February and March.
-The Plains will generally be above average.
Outlook Maps
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
