As a powerhouse storm advances across the center of the nation early this week, AccuWeather meteorologists warn that robust thunderstorms can develop along the Gulf Coast from Monday to Tuesday.
As the second week of January kicks off, a widespread and impactful storm will begin to take shape across the center of the nation. Although this powerhouse storm is expected to bring rounds of accumulating snow across the Plains, this setup will contain another facet to the south.
AccuWeather meteorologists warn that the chilly northern flank of the storm will clash with the warmer, moisture-filled southern flank early this week, sparking the risk for severe thunderstorms along the Gulf Coast states. The right ingredients will be present for tornadoes to spin up, with the highest risk along the northeast Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi coastlines.
“A piece of robust energy will bring disruptive thunderstorms that can produce damaging winds, hail and tornadoes to the Gulf Coast states. An inflow of moisture along the Gulf of Mexico from eastern Texas and southern Louisiana will aid in the development of thunderstorms across the region,” explained AccuWeather Meteorologist Alexander Duffus.
On Monday, the storm's center will advance from the South Central states into the Mississippi Valley. Torrential downpours and damaging winds from thunderstorms are expected to drench locations in Texas from Dallas and Austin to parts of central and southern Mississippi during the daytime on Monday.
By Monday night, storms will begin to depart the Texas coast and continue to pulse across Louisiana, Mississippi, portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. In addition to the threat of robust thunderstorms bringing flooding downpours and gusty winds, the setup and timing of the storms will be conducive for the development of nocturnal tornadoes along the Gulf Coast Monday night.
Nocturnal tornado threat for New Orleans
Tornadoes after dark pose an additional danger for residents since they can spin up when most people in the area are fast asleep and may not be aware of ongoing watches or warnings. Additionally, tornadoes occurring under the veil of darkness can be difficult to see, even for those awake and aware of the danger in their region.
A study by Northern Illinois University through the American Meteorological Society found that even though 27% of tornadoes happen at night, 39% of tornado fatalities occur overnight, making nocturnal tornadoes roughly 2.5 times more deadly.
“This setup will bring the potential for damaging winds, hail and a strong tornado overnight in areas like New Orleans, Louisiana. It is vital that people in southern Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama have methods to receive warnings on Monday night into Tuesday morning when storms are projected to ramp up,” added Duffus.
Locations like Houston, Texas; New Orleans, Louisiana; and Mobile, Alabama, will face a moderate risk for severe weather, such as damaging winds, flooding downpours and tornadoes between Monday and Monday night. During this time, localized damaging wind gusts can range between 55-65 mph at times with the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ of 70 mph.
Storms are expected to ramp up again farther east from Tuesday to Tuesday evening across southeastern Alabama, northern and central Florida through eastern North Carolina and far southeastern Virginia. AccuWeather forecasters say that there is some risk for storms to turn severe across this zone, with the primary risks again being flooding downpours, localized damaging winds and even isolated tornadoes.
From Monday to Tuesday, the soaking wet pattern across the Gulf Coast and Southeastern states will result in an elevated flash and river flooding risk. Recent rounds of heavy rain from Friday to Saturday, which dropped between 1 and 2 inches from Texas to the Southeast coast, can make areas more susceptible to flooding for this upcoming event.
Rainfall totals from the early-week storm are projected to range between 1 and 2 inches along the Gulf Coast states, with pockets of 2 to 4 inches that can occur where the heaviest thunderstorms set up. As this storm continues to track eastward from early to midweek, it will begin to spread copious amounts of heavy rain along the Eastern Seaboard.
A swath of 1-3 inches of rain with localized amounts to 4 inches is projected to expand through parts of the Southeast through New England from Monday to Wednesday, which alone can result in travel disruptions and flash flooding.
However, overlap regions in the Northeast that have inches of snow on the ground from the weekend storm that are also projected to be impacted by the heavy rain this week can experience intense snowmelt in the coming days, further adding to the flood risk.
By , AccuWeather Meteorologist
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