By Alex Lawler
LONDON (Reuters) -OPEC on Monday cut its forecast for global oil demand
growth in 2024, citing weaker than expected data for the first half of the
year and softer expectations for China, and also trimmed its expectation
for next year.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries in a monthly report
said world oil demand will rise by 2.11 million barrels per day in 2024,
down from growth of 2.25 million bpd expected last month.
“This slight revision reflects actual data received for the first quarter
of 2024 and in some cases for the second quarter, as well as softening
expectations for China’s oil demand growth in 2024,” OPEC said in the
report.
“Despite the slow start to the summer driving season compared to the
previous year, transport fuel demand is expected to remain solid due to
healthy road and air mobility.”
This is the first reduction in OPEC’s 2024 forecast since it was first
made in July 2023. There is a wider than usual split between forecasters
on the strength of oil demand growth in 2024 due to differences over China
and more broadly over the pace of the world’s transition to cleaner fuels.
The reduction still leaves OPEC at the top end of industry estimates. Oil
was steady after the report was released, trading above $80 a barrel.
In the report, OPEC also cut next year’s demand growth estimate to 1.78
million bpd from 1.85 million bpd previously expected.
OPEC+, which groups OPEC and allies such as Russia, has implemented a
series of output cuts since late 2022 to support the market. The group
agreed on June 2 to extend the latest cut of 2.2 million bpd until the end
of September and gradually phase it out from October.
The International Energy Agency, which represents industrialised
countries, sees much lower demand growth than OPEC of 970,000 bpd in 2024.
The IEA also updates its figures this week.
(Editing by Jan Harvey)
