Phillip M. Bailey, USA TODAY
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump's showdown in Philadelphia on Tuesday will
be a major test – and opportunity – in a presidential campaign that has
already been defined by a debate.
Democrats and their progressive allies are fully aware of the stakes after
the last head-to-head showdown led to weeks of internal party turmoil
culminating in 81-year-old President Joe Biden's dramatic exit from the
race.
Many are eager for Harris, known for her resume and reputation as a
prosecutor, to take her Republican opponent to task over his unprecedented
criminal record and to draw a contrast on critical issues facing the
country in front of a national audience.
"What happened in June demonstrates just how important debates still are
in a presidential election," said Christina Harvey, executive director of
Stand Up America, a liberal-leaning voting rights group.
"It will be important because these two candidates have such a different promise and vision for America's future," she added.
Former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore,
who unsuccessfully sought the GOP presidential nomination in 2008 and
2016, agreed that Tuesday's exchange will be "critically important" for
both campaigns. But he said it will be far more telling how the Democratic
nominee performs under the spotlight.
"My view is that people know almost nothing about Harris," Gilmore said of
the incumbent 59-year-old vice president, who previously did run for the
White House while serving as a senator from California. "She is going to
introduce herself in the debate for the very first time, nobody knows
anything about this woman."
Here's a look at what each candidate must emphasize and avoid – and how
this debate has the power to sway voters.
With few undecided voters, 'everything matters'
The debate comes at a critical
moment in a race that's going to come down to a sliver of voters.
Roughly 90% of likely voters said their minds are "firmly made up,"
according to a USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll released this month. The survey
found about 8% of respondents indicated they might change their mind with
approximately 1% saying they are undecided.
"In a close election, everything matters," said Marc Trussler, director of
data science at the University of Pennsylvania's program on opinion
research and election studies.
Debates don't typically move the needle among partisans, who are the most
likely audience to watch Tuesday's broadcast. But even a small number of
voters who are skeptical of both candidates might find reasons to choose
differently based on this conversation.
"So there's a little bit of persuasion," Trussler said. "Even more so,
it's going to be them talking to their bases and trying to build that
enthusiasm to vote, something that has been lacking for the Democratic
campaign, but has been gaining steadily since Harris has taken over as the
nominee."
'Can I call you, Joe?': How Harris and Trump interact
The debate rules are the same as
they were in June: no live audience, no props and (over the Harris
campaign’s objections) muted microphones when the other candidate is
speaking.
But rather than a rematch between two candidates who had tussled for more
than four years, this is now an eight-week sprint between two people
who've never met in-person. Harris and Trump didn't interact during his
State of the Union addresses as president, and he didn't attend her
inauguration as VP after refusing to accept the 2020 election results.
Republican consultant Liz Mair, a former spokeswoman for John McCain's
2008 campaign, said the two having no previous interactions could play a
role. She said the last time a national debate of this magnitude took
place with two candidates who genuinely did not know each other was when
then-Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin faced off against then-Delaware Sen. Joe
Biden while both were running for vice president.
At the start of that debate in St. Louis, Palin asked: "Can I call you,
Joe?" due largely to fumbling his last name throughout her previous
preparations. "And that did make a big difference," Mair told USA TODAY.
Political observers will dissect every second of how the two interact in
the first few minutes, including how they respond to each other's attacks
and the moderators.
Mair said she has guided GOP candidates through debates, and will be
watching how Trump responds to Harris, who is the second woman to be a
major party's nominee for president after Hillary Clinton led the
Democratic ticket in the 2016 race against Trump.
"It's very difficult for male candidates to come off as forceful and
authoritative without coming off as being sexist, patronizing (and)
condescending," she said. "I think the fact that they haven't met before
probably makes that worse."
Ending the Harris honeymoon without offending is Trump's test
Trump and his team have an obvious
mission: pop Harris' rising balloon without turning off swing voters who
have as many concerns about the former president's character as his policy
pursuits.
In the past, the GOP nominee has been known to bring surprise guests to
debates and come up with creative insults, but Trump's allies warn against
those sort of antics. Instead, he is being urged to focus on the issues
that animate conservatives and calling attention to her liberal views
rather than vitriolic personal attacks and other ad hominem tangents.
"If Trump stays on the issues, stays on message – and that's by the way
can include criticizing Harris for being a flip flopper – that's OK,"
Gilmore said. "But he needs to then say, 'We don't know what she's going
to do, but this is what I'm going to do.' If he talks about the issues,
he's going to be fine."
The trouble is Trump isn't always the most disciplined messenger, and
often rambles or revels in slinging personal attacks, which have included
questioning Harris' racial heritage. At an August event in Asheboro, North
Carolina, Trump said people often advise him to be nicer but, "sometimes
it’s hard when you're attacked from all ends."
Harris faces danger in debate too, experts warn
For some, the televised debate is
more perilous for Harris, who is still introducing herself to a large
segment of the country who don't fully grasp what she stands for or will
do if elected president.
The VP has reportedly been working on ways to get under Trump's skin by
highlighting his repeated false statements while looking for a viral
social media moment that could define the race.
But debate experts warn Harris, who remains a relative blank page to
voters compared with her Republican rival, faces a steeper fall should a
misstep occur that could halt the momentum her campaign has built over
several weeks.
"The risk for her is that she's still not that well known to a large
portion of the American public, and so it is possible she has a weak
performance that she undermines the hope that she's brought to Democrats,"
said Robert Rowland, a communication studies professor at the University
of Kansas.
Harris has done one sit-down interview, joined by running mate Tim Walz,
since winning the Democratic nomination. She has been criticized for
giving just a handful of policy-focused speeches on the campaign trail and
independent voters in particular will be looking for more details.
Harris could be tripped up by Trump or the moderators on why she's changed
positions on a number of issues, specifically hydraulic fracturing,
commonly referred to as fracking, which is a big issue in the battleground
state of Pennsylvania.
In 2019, Harris called for a fracking ban when running for president but
told CNN she believes climate change can be tackled without a prohibition
on the oil extraction practice.
It will be telling to see how much time Harris spends jousting with Trump
versus speaking directly to voters about her plans and views.
'Best decision I made': Biden's record will be as central as the issues
President Biden won't be at this
debate, but he's likely to come up for very different reasons Tuesday.
Republicans will want to tag Harris as the true incumbent and anchor her
to every controversial decision or bad outcome over the past four years.
Trump has been relentless, for example, in bringing up the botched 2021
evacuation ending the war in Afghanistan that resulted in 13 U.S. troops
being killed. He has posted videos online of those soldiers' relatives who
specifically blame Harris for the outcome.
In other ads, the Trump campaign calls attention to higher grocery costs
with clips of her saying, "Bidenomics is working." That, along with
Harris' role in dealing with root causes for the crisis at the southern
border and what she knew about Biden's capacity, could all be used against
the vice president during Tuesday's debate.
Only 31% of Americans surveyed in the USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll said the
country is on the right track versus to 58% who said it is on the wrong
track.
As Harris threads the incumbency needle, she might look to defend her
boss, who is seeing better numbers since bowing out.
The USA TODAY/Suffolk survey found that about 84% of voters think his
decision to drop out was right, and 48% of respondents approve of the job
he's doing compared to 41% who said the same in late June.
Other pollsters show Biden's numbers relatively unchanged, but as
Democrats and their allies revere the president's choice, any improvement
benefits Harris.
"I think that Harris needs to run against Trump, not Biden ... who
accomplished a significant amount during his presidency," said Harvey, the
voting rights leader.
Harvey said instead of playing defense Harris can go on offense Tuesday by reminding voters about the series of controversies and decisions made during the Trump years. She noted how the next president could make multiple appointments to the Supreme Court in the next term.
Four of the nine justices will be
in their 70s by the end of next January, which progressive activists say
raises the stakes given the high court's 6-3 conservative tilt.
"They could retire or die or have health issues," Harvey said. "That means
that if Trump were reelected, he can ensure MAGA control of the court for
decades to come. That would have a huge impact on issues concerning
abortion, voting rights and on gun safety."
'Prosecutor v. felon' (or reality TV star)
One thing that infuriated
Democrats about the June 27 debate was Biden’s missed opportunity at
making a coherent case against Trump on national TV.
Whether it is the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, handling of
the COVID-19 pandemic or his various court cases, Harris comes into
Tuesday with an expectation by supporters to put Trump's political and
personal record on trial.
The Harris campaign enjoys framing this race as a “prosecutor v. felon.”
But a debate stage isn't a courtroom and Trump, a former reality TV star,
is experienced in what will be his seventh presidential debate when
counting his past White House campaigns in 2016 and 2020.
Debate could break audience records
Biden’s exit, Harris’ entry and
Trump's showmanship has given this campaign a cinematic feel that coupled
with real world consequences, could make it the most watched presidential
debate in U.S. history.
That title is currently held by the 2016 contest between Trump and Hillary
Clinton, who drew about 84 million viewers during their first debate.
The other top watched debates are roughly 80 million who watched the 1980
debate between Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter; and approximately 73
million who viewed the first 2020 debate between Biden and Trump amid the
pandemic.
ABC News will host the event, but if you include other platforms and
streaming services this could break records.
