by: Candice King
Posted: Mar 29, 2023 / 08:35 PM CDTUpdated: Mar 29, 2023 / 08:35 PM CDT
The first severe weather event remains well in play for the Stateline as the threat for severe thunderstorms increases late Friday afternoon and evening. All hazards of severe weather: damaging winds, large hail, and isolated tornadoes are possible during that time.
Skies will turn partly cloudy Wednesday evening as high pressure slides to the east of the Stateline. Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to dip into the 20s overnight. Winds will quickly turn to the southeast during the day Thursday warming temperatures through the 40s, then into the 50s by the evening. A few showers are possible along the leading edge of the warm air, passing through northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin mid-afternoon.
Winds will increase Thursday night as the low-level jet moves in from the southwest. This, along with a slight increase in instability, will likely cause a few isolated thunderstorms to develop overnight. Some of the stronger storms may produce small hail.
Scattered shower activity may continue throughout the day Friday as temperatures warm through the low to mid 60s. It doesn't appear that we will completely clear out, but any breaks in the clouds could cause temperatures to warm even further. It may also feel muggy during that time as dew point temperatures are forecast to rise into the 50s!
The entire Stateline is under some sort of risk for severe weather Friday evening, with a slightly higher risk west of I-39. Thunderstorms are expected to develop in Iowa during the afternoon, starting off as discrete supercell storms capable of damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes. As the cold front moves east, the storms will most likely grow into a linear structure posing a damaging wind threat into Illinois. However, there is a chance that isolated tornadoes could occur within this line. And that threat is higher if individual storm cells remain outside of the line of storms.
While the ingredients for severe weather are coming into better play, there are some limiting factors. Cloud cover and rain showers during the afternoon Friday could continue to lower the needed instability for severe weather to move east into the Stateline. It's also possible that moisture remains low locally, and higher to the south, taking away some of the fuel needed for storm development. But even though the severe threat isn't a done deal, it's important to remain weatheraware the next couple of days. Make sure you are staying up to date with the forecast, have a plan in place should severe weather occur, and have multiple ways to receive warnings. Updated weather information will continue leading into Friday.
