By: Richard Tribou, Orlando Sentinel
ORLANDO, Fla. — Tropical Storm Debby formed Saturday afternoon with a
projected path to hit Florida’s Gulf Coast as a hurricane on Monday,
according to the National Hurricane Center.
In its 8 p.m. advisory, the NHC said the center of Debby was located
about 100 miles west-southwest of Key West and 270 miles south of Tampa,
with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph as it moves west-northwest at 14
mph.
The system has grown since becoming Tropical Depression Four late Friday
and is forecast to intensify in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico
over the weekend.
A hurricane warning has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from the
Suwannee River to the Ochlockonee with a hurricane watch running from
west of the Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass near Apalachicola, and east
of the Suwannee River down to Yankeetown south of Cedar Key.
A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys west of
the Seven Mile Bridge including the Dry Tortugas, and the west coast of
Florida from East Cape Sable south of Naples north to the Suwannee
River. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the Florida Keys north of
the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge and on Florida’s Panhandle
coast west of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach.
A storm surge warning is in effect for Aripeka just north of Tampa up
the Gulf Coast to Indian Pass and a storm surge watch from Bonita Beach
north of Naples to Aripeka including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
The system’s northwestern path is expected to continue Saturday night
before a northward turn Sunday and slower northeastern motion by Sunday
night and early Monday morning.
“On the forecast track, the center of Debby will move across the
southeastern and eastern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Sunday, reaching the
Florida Gulf coast late Sunday night or Monday,” said NHC senior
hurricane specialist Jack Beven said. “Strengthening is expected as
Debby crosses the Gulf of Mexico, and the system is likely to be at or
near hurricane strength when it reaches the Florida Gulf Coast.”
The forecast cone had shifted further north and west since Friday, with
a projected landfall possible in the Big Bend part of Florida south of
Tallahassee on Monday afternoon with sustained winds of 75 mph, which
would make it a Category 1 hurricane with gusts of 90 mph. Hurricane
Idalia made landfall on the Big Bend in 2023 as a Category 3 hurricane.
“Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area by late
Sunday night or Monday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected
to arrive during the day on Sunday,” Beven said. “Hurricane conditions
are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical
storm conditions expected to begin on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to spread northward over the tropical storm warning areas
this evening and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions
are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys tonight, and in the
Florida panhandle by late Sunday or Monday morning.”
In addition, storm surge is forecast to be as high as 7 feet from
Yankeetown to the Aucilla River, 3-5 feet from Aripeka to Yankeetown and
the Aucilla River to Indian Pass, and 2-4 feet from Bonita Beach to
Aripeka as well as Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
The NHC expects rainfall from 6 to 12 inches with some areas getting up
to 18 inches across portions of Florida and the Southeast U.S. this
weekend and through Thursday morning that could cause flash and urban
flooding as well as some isolated river flooding.
“A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western
Florida peninsula through tonight, expanding across much of northern and
central Florida on Sunday,” Beven said.
The system has been building the last few days as a tropical wave that
stretched hundreds of miles producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms moving across the northern Caribbean islands
and southeastern Bahamas.
Gov. Ron DeSantis declared most counties under a state of emergency
earlier this week. Floods could ensue if the system continued its
current slow course or even stalled over the Florida peninsula.
The Florida Department of Emergency Management has activated the State
Emergency Operations Center while the Florida National Guard has around
3,000 service members readying for response efforts, the governor’s
office stated in an email.
In addition, 70 members of the Florida State Guard along with nine
shallow water vessels, 10 UTVs and two amphibious rescue vehicles have
been staged for deployment. Seven search and rescue crews are prepared
to deploy from Camp Blanding. Also, the Florida Fish and Wildlife
Conservation Commission has readied high-water vehicles and all other
storm response resources statewide.
For central Florida, the National Weather Service in Melbourne forecast
2-4 inches of rain in some areas with 4-6 inches north of Interstate 4
over the weekend and a tropical storm watch remained in effect Saturday
for Lake County, although the forecast path of the system had shifted
more west since Friday.
“By this evening, the outer rain bands of the tropical cyclone are
forecast to begin to push into east central Florida, with scattered to
numerous showers and scattered lightning storms expected,” said NWS
Melbourne Meteorologist Melissa Watson. “Main storm threats with these
outer rain bands will be heavy rainfall. However an additional threat of
gusty winds to tropical storm force, and a tornado or two can not be
ruled out.”
Several locations around Orange, Lake, Seminole and Volusia counties
began providing sandbag supplies Friday. The region suffered serious
flooding during Hurricane Ian and Hurricane Nicole in 2022.
Farther south, according to NWS Miami, some areas over the weekend could
see up from 4-8 inches of rain starting Saturday. Some areas could top
12 inches and a flood watch is in effect for South Florida.
“Regardless of development, this will bring a surge of deep tropical
moisture to the region which will result in the potential for excessive
rainfall and localized flooding throughout the day on Saturday,” NWS
Miami Meteorologist Chuck Caracozza said. “What still remains highly
uncertain is the details of exactly where the heaviest rainfall will
occur.”
Tropical Storm Debby became the fourth official system of the 2024
Atlantic hurricane season. The others were Tropical Storm Alberto,
Hurricane Beryl and Tropical Storm Chris.
Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but the height of storm
formation runs from mid-August into October.
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